Sixty-Seven Services Orders Ride a Vehicle That Stopped Taking Orders

A seat on a vehicle is an option, and options expire.

Our expiring board refreshed this morning: 1,274 DoD prime contracts over $50M, running out of period between May 4, 2027 and October 25, 2028. The services slice of it, NAICS 54 or PSC R and D, is 388 awards and $92.50B, and 274 of those are orders placed under somebody's indefinite-delivery contract.

So we went and asked the obvious follow-up question about those 274.

"If I wanted a seat on the paper this work rides, is there still a door open?"

We pulled the ordering period of every one of the 215 distinct parent vehicles behind those orders, straight off FPDS, paginated to exhaustion so a late extension could not be missed. 4,511 action records, zero fetch errors, a lastDateToOrder on all 215.

67 of the 274 orders ride a vehicle that has already stopped taking new ones. The median one of those closed 20.2 months ago, and $11.31B is sitting on them.

Another 60 ride a vehicle that closes before the order it carries ends. Median seat window left: 6.2 months (chart below).

The Door Shuts Years Before the Work Does

Add the two and you get 127 orders, 46.35% of the services orders on the board, carrying $19.10B. For every one of them, a firm that does not hold the parent today has no on-ramp left, or less runway than a capture cycle needs.

The remaining 147, $24.13B, sit on paper with a median 25.9 months still to run.

Now, the usual pipeline tool reports all 274 of these the same way: an end date, an incumbent, a dollar figure, a quarter. The end date is the one fact in that row that was never the gate.