How Short Is Your Real Call List?
Every contract coming off period of performance in the next two years was bought by one of 245 contracting offices, and ten of them own two thirds of the $404.8 billion. Here is the ranked list, the 109 offices you will deal with exactly once, and the six names near the top that never competed a dollar.
Your pipeline is a list of contracts. The people who decide those contracts sit in a much shorter list, and almost nobody builds that one.
Our board refreshed this morning: 1,210 DoD prime contracts over $50 million whose periods of performance end between March 2027 and September 2028, $460.1 billion obligated. Sort it by the contracting office that made the award and you get 266 names.
Ten of them own 59.2% of the money.
Six of the Top Twenty Never Bought Anything
Before that number is useful it needs one correction. Six of the top twenty offices are DCMA: Fixed Wing Puget Sound, Fixed Wing Ft Worth, Vertical Lift Mesa, Vertical Lift Texas, Missiles, and Space Enterprise. Those are administering offices carrying contracts the services awarded, which is the same attribution quirk we walked through on August 28 when DCMA turned up as the fourth-biggest name on this board.
Strip them and the board is $404.8 billion across 245 offices.
The concentration tightens. Ten offices now carry 65.6%, twenty-five carry 79.1%, and fifty carry 87.4% (chart below).
Naval Air Systems Command alone is $66.67 billion across 101 rows, and W6QK ACC-RSA is $38.16 billion across 76.
Then a shape worth noticing: FA8609 AFLCMC WLCK KC46 is $33.17 billion on six rows, and Supervisor of Shipbuilding Groton is $26.64 billion on three.
Two of the five biggest names on your board are there on nine contracts between them.
The Half of the List You Will Meet Once
At the other end, 109 of the 245 offices carry exactly one expiring contract each. $18.65 billion between them.
So the list splits cleanly. A couple of dozen offices where the relationship compounds across repeat business, and roughly half the names on the board where you get one requirement, one source selection, and no second at-bat inside the window. Those are different capture investments, and ranking your board by dollars hides which is which.
The rest of this brief is for subscribers.
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