45 Recompetes, 22 Dates That Have Already Gone By

NAWCAD Patuxent River refreshed its long range acquisition forecast on Monday afternoon, a quarterly update to a special notice that most people archive unread.

45 requirements in the attachment. Each one carries the incumbent's name, the incumbent's contract number, a dollar band running from $10M to $1.5B, a projected vehicle, and two dates: when the final RFP releases and when the award lands.

22 of the 45 give the RFP release as an actual calendar date instead of a fiscal quarter.

Every one of those 22 has already gone by.

Fourteen Awards, Zero Live RFP Dates

The oldest dated RFP release in the file is 20-May-25, which is 518 days back. The median across the 22 is 147 days.

Only 6 of them landed inside the last 90 days.

Sort the file by when NAWCAD says the award hits and the shape gets sharper (chart below). Of the 14 requirements projected to award in FY26 Q4 or FY27 Q1, meaning by New Year's, all 14 sit on an RFP date that is behind us.

Stretch to the end of March and it is 21 of 24.

The far end of the file reads completely differently. From FY27 Q3 onward the RFP column stops carrying dates at all and goes back to quarters: 12 rows say FY27 Q1, 6 say FY27 Q2, 5 say FY27 Q3.

Add the two halves together and 34 of the 45 requirements have an RFP release that is either behind us or inside the quarter we are standing in.

What a Date That Passed Actually Means

NAWCAD prints its own legend at the top of page one. Gray cells mean action has occurred, and an asterisk means the row changed since the last posted LRAF.

27 of the 45 rows carry an asterisk, 17 of them on the award column.

So a passed date is one of two things, and telling them apart is ten minutes of work.

Aegis VIII is the case you can trace end to end. The forecast gives 17-Nov-25 for the final RFP on the NAWCAD WOLF Aegis recompete, a $200M to $500M C-type against BAE Systems on N00421-20-C-0003.

Solicitation N00421-25-R-0004 posted on 2025-12-10, twenty-three days after the forecast date, with offers due 2025-12-18.

Eight days to respond.

The award on that same row is projected 20-Aug-26, asterisked, and still printed that way in a file posted two months later.

"Is this date a pointer to a notice I missed, or a slip nobody has rewritten yet?"