Why the Biggest Contracts Expiring Aren't for Sale
Fourteen contracts carry 20.6% of every dollar coming off the DoD board between March 2027 and September 2028. Thirteen of them are coded not competed, only one source, and what they buy is parts for a production lot assigned years ago. Two would pass a services NAICS screen without blinking.
The second-biggest contract coming off the Pentagon's books between March 2027 and September 2028 carries $30,140,182,630 in obligations and a description that reads, in full: "THE PURPOSE OF THIS MODIFICATION IS TO AWARD F-35A LRIP 15 USAF AIRCRAFT* LONG LEAD FUNDING."
Nobody is going to bid it.
The parts it buys feed an aircraft lot that was assigned to Lockheed Martin years ago, and the award record says as much: extent competed C, not competed, only one source under FAR 6.302-1, one offer received.
What the Top of the Board Actually Is
We refreshed the expiration board this run. It came back with 1,208 DoD prime contracts above the $50M floor whose period of performance ends between 2027-03-15 and 2028-09-05, carrying $458.6B in obligations between them.
Fourteen of those rows describe themselves as long-lead material or advance procurement.
Fourteen rows is 1.2% of the board. They hold $94.5B, which is 20.6% of every dollar on it, and five of them sit inside the twelve largest rows (chart below).
The rest of this brief is for subscribers.
The specific solicitations, dockets, and dates to act on sit past this line.
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