The Platform Side Only Has to Watch Fourteen Things
Half the DoD money coming off contract between May 2027 and October 2028 sits in fourteen product contracts. Covering the services half takes seventy-three. That gap decides how a capture shop staffs its pipeline, and it is not the gap most account plans assume.
Two capture leads pull the same board on the same afternoon.
Same query, same floor, same window: every DoD prime contract over $50M whose current period of performance ends between May 2027 and October 2028. 1,155 awards, $411.8B obligated against them.
One lead covers aircraft and ships. The other covers services.
One of them can cover half their addressable money by the end of the week. The other is going to be reading through Thanksgiving.
"How many contracts do you actually have to watch to cover half the money?"
The curve
Rank each side of that board by obligated dollars and walk down it until you have half the category.
On the product side you stop at 14 contracts. On the services side you are still going at 73 (chart below).
That is a 5.2x difference in how many instruments a team has to track to hold the same share of its own market.
The product curve gets there fast because the top of it is enormous. The single largest row is Boeing's KC-X modernization contract, FA862511C6600, $31.97B obligated and running to 2027-07-31.
Lockheed's F-35 long-lead vehicle N0001920C0009 carries $30.15B to 2028-06-01. Those two rows alone are 21% of everything the product side has expiring.
The services curve has no equivalent. Its biggest row is The Aerospace Corporation's FFRDC engineering contract FA880219C0001 at $8.57B to 2028-09-30, and after that the drop is immediate.
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