Recompeted
August 8, 20264 min readSubscribers

The $423 Billion Pipeline Has $29 Billion in It

Seven in ten dollars coming off DoD contract in the next two years sit in product buys. We cut the expiring pipeline by product service code, then followed the services slice down to the largest thing inside it: $1.45B of DCSA fieldwork with 235 days left and no successor solicitation on SAM.

"If $423 billion of DoD work comes off contract in the next two years, how much of it can a services shop actually bid?"

We cut the desk's expiring pipeline by product service code today to answer that. The number is $28.97B, and it sits in 185 of the 1,174 contracts in the window (chart below).

Where the $423 Billion Sits

The pipeline refreshed this morning to 1,174 DoD prime contracts above $50M whose periods of performance end between Feb 5, 2027 and Jul 28, 2028, carrying $423.49B in obligations.

Numeric product service codes take 519 of those rows and $294.54B of the dollars. So 44.2% of the contracts hold 69.55% of the money.

Sort what's left by PSC family and the services half thins out fast:

  • R&D (A): $31.96B across 123 rows
  • Professional and management support (R): $23.48B across 142 rows
  • Construction (Y): $21.19B across 132 rows
  • Equipment maintenance and rebuild (J): $19.03B across 69 rows
  • IT and telecom (D): $5.49B across 43 rows

Y-code construction runs as one-time projects. J-code sustainment mostly returns to whoever built the platform. Strip both and the addressable core, R plus D, is 185 rows worth $28.97B.

Call it 6.8% of the headline.

One honest note on the measure: the value column is obligated-to-date, which flatters production contracts that book billions in a single action. The row count says the same thing without the dollars, at 15.8%.

The Denominator Problem

The shape of that slice matters more than its size.

The ten biggest R and D contracts in the window are only 29.2% of its value. The median row is $86.6M and the interquartile range runs $65M to $138M. So it's a long tail of mid-size recompetes rather than four whales you can staff a capture org around.

And it front-loads hard. 80 of the 185 come off on or before Mar 31, 2027, carrying $13.26B, which is 45.8% of the slice's value inside the first eight weeks of the window.

To be fair, the far edge of the window fills in later, as contracts awarded between now and then land there. That cuts one way only, and the crowded near edge is the real number.

The rest of this brief is for subscribers.

The specific solicitations, dockets, and dates to act on sit past this line.

$50 a month, or $500 a year.

Subscribe