Nineteen Rows, Six Recompetes
Thirty-seven groups of expiring DoD contracts share an issuing office and an exact end date, and 31 of those dates are fiscal housekeeping. The six that are not mark a single procurement act wearing three contract numbers, and the date itself tells you whether the vehicle or the order is what comes up for bid.
If you screen your pipeline on expiration date, most of what comes back is a fiscal convention.
We refreshed the expiring board this morning: 1,216 DoD contracts over $50M coming off period between April 2027 and October 2028, carrying $471.24B in obligations across 343 distinct end dates and 255 issuing offices.
550 of those rows, 45.2% of the board, expire on the last day of a month.
So we asked the board a narrower question. Group every live row by its issuing office and its exact end date, keep the groups holding three or more contracts, and 37 co-expiration clusters fall out: 165 contracts, 13.6% of the rows, and $116.22B, which is 24.7% of everything on the board.
The clusters are where the value concentrates.
Here is the catch. 31 of those 37 clusters share the last day of a month, which makes them independent contracts pinned to the same fiscal boundary by habit.
The remaining six share a date no calendar would have picked, and a date like that gets set by a procurement action (chart below).
Nineteen contract numbers. $1.95B. Six actual recompetes.
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